EV Sales in 2016 Should Scare the Oil Industry, but 2017 Could Be a Death Blow If Tesla Can Deliver

February 5, 2018 by  
Filed under How To Fix Your Car

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Overall 2016 was a big growth year with a 42% worldwide increase over 2015. Charging locations worldwide increased and battery prices continue to drop with a nearly 50% decrease over the past 3 years. This doesn’t account for Tesla’s new Gigafactory and the economies of scale that will help them lower the cost even further.

China grew the most with +85% over 2015 as a part of their big EV push to help combat pollution. They are by far the worlds largest EV market with over 350,000 EVs delivered in 2016. This is largely due to their incentive programs and their sheer size.

The US EV market grew by 36% which I’m calling strong considering the cost of gasoline has remained low due to domestic oil production along with a worldwide decrease in demand. Public charging in the US grew by 22% mostly from the Chargepoint and Tesla networks. California led the way with nearly 50% of all EV sales in the US.

The EU EV market grew by 13% which is down from the previous year likely due to the incentive changes in the Netherlands and Denmark. Honestly, if you live in that region you probably ride a bike everywhere so I’m not sure it matters much. Norway stands out with 19% of all auto sales in 2016 belonging to EVs. This is an interesting time because at this point they might be on the brink of EVs becoming the car of choice for all new buyers.

// Sources
EV Volumes Global Report http://www.ev-volumes.com/
Forbes http://www.forbes.com/sites/davidkiley5/2017/02/19/teslas-1-threat-trumps-and-ryans-hatred-of-the-ev-tax-credit/#23a14a2f23fe
Gigafactory footage https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dLQ2p0QVhG0
Charging Location Source http://www.afdc.energy.gov/fuels/electricity_locations.html

// What is an Electric Vehicle? (wikipedia)
An electric vehicle (EV), also referred to as an electric drive vehicle, uses one or more electric motors or traction motors for propulsion. An electric vehicle may be powered through a collector system by electricity from off-vehicle sources, or may be self-contained with a battery, solar panels or a generator to convert fuel to electricity.[1] EVs include road and rail vehicles, surface and underwater vessels, electric aircraft and electric spacecraft.

EVs first came into existence in the mid-19th century, when electricity was among the preferred methods for motor vehicle propulsion, providing a level of comfort and ease of operation that could not be achieved by the gasoline cars of the time. The internal combustion engine (ICE) has been the dominant propulsion method for motor vehicles for almost 100 years, but electric power has remained commonplace in other vehicle types, such as trains and smaller vehicles of all types.

In the 21st century, EVs saw a resurgence due to technological developments and an increased focus on renewable energy. Government incentives to increase adoptions were introduced, including in the United States[2] and the European Union[3]. Prominent brands include the Toyota Prius, the Nissan Leaf, and the Tesla Model S.

// History of the EV (wikipedia)
Electric motive power started in 1827, when Slovak-Hungarian priest Ányos Jedlik built the first crude but viable electric motor, provided with stator, rotor and commutator, and the year after he used it to power a tiny car.[4] A few years later, in 1835, professor Sibrandus Stratingh of University of Groningen, the Netherlands, built a small scale electric car and a Robert Anderson of Scotland is reported to have made a crude electric carriage sometime between the years of 1832 and 1839. Around the same period, early experimental electrical cars were moving on rails, too. American blacksmith and inventor Thomas Davenport built a toy electric locomotive, powered by a primitive electric motor, in 1835. In 1838, a Scotsman named Robert Davidson built an electric locomotive that attained a speed of four miles per hour (6 km/h). In England a patent was granted in 1840 for the use of rails as conductors of electric current, and similar American patents were issued to Lilley and Colten in 1847.[5]

Between 1832 and 1839 (the exact year is uncertain), Robert Anderson of Scotland invented the first crude electric carriage, powered by non-rechargeable primary cells.

By the 20th century, electric cars and rail transport were commonplace, with commercial electric automobiles having the majority of the market. Over time their general-purpose commercial use reduced to specialist roles, as platform trucks, forklift trucks, ambulances,[7] tow tractors and urban delivery vehicles, such as the iconic British milk float; for most of the 20th century, the UK was the world’s largest user of electric road vehicles.
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Comments

20 Responses to “EV Sales in 2016 Should Scare the Oil Industry, but 2017 Could Be a Death Blow If Tesla Can Deliver”
  1. Alex Tablet says:

    I dont get it… EV are so bad / no option at least for myself. A vehicle that is more than 3 times the price and more repairs down the line? Plus it cant beat the 800km minimum range my car gets? Im not rich but the Tesla are no option.

  2. californiakayaker N6GRG says:

    There were Tesla Chargers at Crater Lake National Park, and amazing place.

  3. Serge Rijkenberg says:

    I'm curiously awaitig your update for the 2017 numbers. I actually think the 8/10 cars you get extrapolating the curve in 2030 is spot on. Concidering the huge supply surplus from 2020 of electric ars from VW etc thats the year they will become mainstream in most of Europe.

    Not to mention the countries banning EV sales from 2025-2030 (major ones like france banning them from 2040) but safe to say the car manufacturers will stop producing before a bann date, for sure the announced bann will will make the R&D budget shift completely away from ICE many years before then

  4. TheFourthWinchester says:

    I am from India where there are barely any EVs and no infrastructure to support EVs and I'm a mechanical engineer, but no more ICE vehicles for me! My next two vehicles – a car and a scooter – are both gonna be EVs when they get here.

  5. Brittany Jackson says:

    Work for Tesla?

  6. Dr. Wayne Manzo says:

    Elton M you Sick aka my ex wife the Material Bitch Reptilian Witch owns the car company and sells cars in Armenian Reptilian Jew Commy California by giving Jew buyers free money and buying a Mad Donna Te(s)lla is kick back money to the Reptilian Jews! And you thought those cars were selling because people liked them__ they are forced to buy!

  7. joseph cunningham says:

    the battery pack has been really studied in the tesla and for most cases it will last longer than a ice car before rebuilding eventually I would imagine out side sources will remanufacture battery packs
    causing the cost of ownership to go down you cannot ignore effeciency either 90 percent vs 35 regen versus braking

  8. joseph cunningham says:

    the bms on the tesla battery pack is very good with a cool/heating system to also extend the life of the batteries an expected life of the battery pack would be better than any normal engine so the 12 k you say is not accurate also its does mean it would be less to run the trans is reall a reduction gear system with no clutches or bands to wear out this is one of the most coplicated components in an average ice car the rotor is the only moving part of the power unit versus a crank ,cam valves trottle injectors

  9. jon wildes says:

    As a southern conservative (I’m ignoring the anti-Trump rant) who doesn’t believe in climate change (don’t want an argument on the subject) I do believe in hedging my bets. I love the green revolution because it really doesn’t matter if climate change exists if we can make the earth a better place to leave that’s still a good goal. Love the channel keep up the good work.

  10. Robanz ZZ says:

    Great to see so many getting into EV's.

    EVs aren't as big of a deal in Australia as they are in Norway or the U.S but in my neck of the woods which is a regional area i've seen at least one model S and a well known guy in Tasmania down hobart has a model S as well as his wife but atm in Australia pople buying them are super early adaptors of EVs.

    I am starting to seriously look at EVs for my next car myself but don't think i'll have the money till around 2021 or so unless a good used market for Teslas or Lucid gets up and running.

    First move I've made is i'm getting solar put on my roof in preparation for getting an EV so I can just charge from the power generated from the solar or, at the minimum, so I could off set what I use at a later date and hopefully make it so the cost of charging it goes down to virtually nil.

    Interesting times ahead

  11. Deyan Dyankov says:

    Yes, I can see them shaking. The record high EV sales of roughly 0.2% can certainly put the fear of god into oil companies. Or so I hear.

  12. Rushabh Doshi says:

    India government is also encouraging ev vehicle …India government is replacing it's fossil cars with EV cars … recently India government has order 10,000 EV cars

  13. Americae Libertas says:

    Until dramatic improvements are made in battery technology, ergonomics, and drivability, electric cars will only be practical in cities. I hope that the auto industry takes a serious look at the needs of rural Americans such as myself. I live in the state of Wyoming, the tenth largest state in the nation, and the smallest population in the nation. Over 90% of towns and cities in my state are separated by over 100 miles of road. Todays EVs packed with the highest range would not be able to come close to delivering reliable and dependable service in my state. I go to school in Wyoming and the town that I grew up in is more than a 61/2 to 7 hour drive via my Ford Focus which gets about 40 mpg on the highway which translates to roughly to 500 miles on one tank. Unfortunately, wind; hills, mountain passes, gas pedal/brake inputs, air conditioning etc, requires almost the entire tank of fuel. A EV such as the Tesla Model S would maybe get me halfway across the state but there are not that many charging stations and even with more charging stations the trip plus the wait times would most likely increase my travel time to over 12 hours which is not good. Also, Wyoming weather can get really cold and cold and EVs do not mix because unlike a combustion car which bleeds engine heat, an EV needs a battery to run a heater which sucks up energy so driving in the state in the winter could possibly increase my travel time to a full day. So unless significant improvements are made with EV technology such as increasing the range to over 400 miles–no thank you, I'll stick to my Ford Focus.

  14. Abdou soliman says:

    Here in the middle east it's impossible to see an EV.. It's very far from us.. Still there is crisis in the petrol stations from a place to another.. Not because the lack of money or oil..but who knows.. the people still don't know about it.. And of course no chargers

  15. Just Another War Robots Channel says:

    Statistical data that's based on States should be per capita otherwise Rhode Island is competing with Texas.

  16. Tom Johnson says:

    Why would oil companies worry anyhow? All your are doing is extending the availability of oil longer. There will be more oil in the ground 100 years from now if we use less now. …that doesn't really have any negative impact on anyone's income. Except maybe the laborers who would have had jobs, when more oil was needed per year.

    Big oil companies are owned by stockholders. If they aren't as profitable of an investment as other investments, then people just buy other stocks. Their stock just trades at a lower price then. It all evens out.

  17. Tom Johnson says:

    Until you get full sized vehicles, that are just as good as the current ones, in every way, you can keep your electric cars.

  18. anton de roest says:

    CHINA many electric cars manufactured are for domestic market. Shanghai automotive Roewe ERX5, BYD Song, Baic, building EV Suv's with 300km+ range. Many brands urban range. Often similar 8 year/ 120000 km warranty. At 1/4 of price of model S.

  19. Dave Cruickshank says:

    You need to compile all you data and stories into a book. You could leather – bind it and call it the "Teslanomicon". 🙂

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